Archive for September 27th, 2009

Will It Happen Here???

Images of Saturday’s deluge in Metro Manila had cast some fear in many, not only by those who got to wade through the flooded streets or those stranded on the roof of houses submerged by Ondoy’s wrath, but also by those who are watching the tube in their homes, hundreds of miles away from the typhoon’s reach.

As they say, it was the first time that Metro Manila experienced such catastrophe. A storm came to pass by the central portion of Luzon island but it brought a lot of rain and wind which it heavily dropped since friday. It was not a strong typhoon (85-95 kph with gustiness of up to 110kph). The wind was saturated and was packed with huge amount of rain.

It came as a shock that last Saturday, rainfall was of record high. According to PAG-ASA, the country’s meteorological agency, Ondoy’s 341mm 24-hour rainfall had surpassed the 334 mm rainfall recorded in June of 1967. The analogy was that, the supposedly one-month worth of rain for Metro Manila was reached in just 6 hours of precipitation over the densely populated area.

Geographically, the metro is a vast flatland, slightly above sea-level, flanked by the Laguna Lake in the east and the Manila Bay at the opposite side. The Pasig River winds its way through the heart of the metro and empties at the Manila Bay.

Ondoy (international code Ketsana) has already left the country’s area of responsibility. Residents of Metro Manila and other neighboring provinces have begun their rescue-recovery-and-retrieval operations. Major tv channels have put up extended news coverages and telethons to urge Filipinos to donate or extend help in various forms.

Video clips of the flood also flooded internet sites, providing a picture of despair, sadness and shock on how the imperial Manila was conquered by mother nature’s anger.

A force majeure. It’s quite easy to guess why it happened to Manila. Major waterways and esteros have either become shallow, caused by the sediments that were carried over by the river current,  and also because of reclamation and topographical alterations brought by either urban development or of urban migration.

The perennial problem of waste generation and disposal may have contributed much to the heavy flooding of the metro. Garbage are often thrown into the Pasig River and its tributaries. Esteros are clogged with thrash. Drainage systems are in terrible state and people continue to move into the city, squatting on empty lots, riverbanks, and on the canals.

Add to the fact that run-off water from barren highlands in the metro flows down to the low-lying areas, adding to the huge volume of rain collected in dams or watersheds. The flood gates could not even hold much of the water as the weirs need to be opened to spare several flood-prone areas.

The flash floods may have happened because of climate change. Environmental factors may explain how Ondoy came to bring too much water to Luzon. Manila is on a typhoon path. It’s also flood-prone. It is vulnerable to inundation, yet it is also resilient.

It makes me wonder if Cebu could be vulnerable to such force majeure? Metro Cebu, with its huge population and its imperfect drainage and sewage system could suffer a similar fate as the capital. Clusters of squatters killed the old esteros. Shallow rivers and creeks have been drying out. The hills are barren and devoid of vegetation. Cebu has nothing to stop the flood water.

Last saturday’s flood was a wake-up call. Cebu could be very vulnerable to such. I hope the local government could start taking concrete measures to keep the deluge from happening.

Meantime, let me just check the holes in my roof and secure it from the late September rain.